Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
