A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
