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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.